Thanks for sharing. Certainly an overlooked business. Also worth mentioning they own 2.5M SF of their own manufacturing facilities.
Presumably the 20% decline in 2025 in the current business is temporary and will kick back in in 2026.
Backing into the SAT revenue (before OpSec contributions) gets you to $528M. Let's say 40% of SAT business is US Bank Notes, so $211M and 20% impacted so $42M at 20% operating margin, so $8.5M or $0.15 EPS.
Normalized earnings: $0.15 EPS (assumes US Bank program runs at full capacity, before upside from 2026 program) + $0.40 EPS (annualized De La Rue) + $4.15 EPS mid-point guidance = <12 P/E @ $55/share today.
Ignores the fact this business underspends D&A (3% of capex on sales) by ~$40M annually. Would say this is largely an acylical business. Think we will see organic tailwinds in this space and they are the market leader.
Also nice to see 15% insider ownership. Worth owning some and will add if it continues to drop (Q1 earnings expected to be light per management).
Thanks for your comments. Good point about the owned real estate.
And The Crane Fund (13% ownership) is interesting. Over 100 years of history helping former Crane employees.
Agree on the acyclical nature of the business perhaps excluding some of the small consumer end markets.
Thanks for sharing. Certainly an overlooked business. Also worth mentioning they own 2.5M SF of their own manufacturing facilities.
Presumably the 20% decline in 2025 in the current business is temporary and will kick back in in 2026.
Backing into the SAT revenue (before OpSec contributions) gets you to $528M. Let's say 40% of SAT business is US Bank Notes, so $211M and 20% impacted so $42M at 20% operating margin, so $8.5M or $0.15 EPS.
Normalized earnings: $0.15 EPS (assumes US Bank program runs at full capacity, before upside from 2026 program) + $0.40 EPS (annualized De La Rue) + $4.15 EPS mid-point guidance = <12 P/E @ $55/share today.
Ignores the fact this business underspends D&A (3% of capex on sales) by ~$40M annually. Would say this is largely an acylical business. Think we will see organic tailwinds in this space and they are the market leader.
Also nice to see 15% insider ownership. Worth owning some and will add if it continues to drop (Q1 earnings expected to be light per management).
Well appreciated.
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